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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still