Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
